NZ Climate Projection Cards — Ngā Matapae
Lesson 2: Local Climate Impacts · Activity 1 · Years 9–10
Print one set per pair and cut along the dashed lines. Each card summarises a sourced climate projection. Read the period, scenario and place boundary whenever one is given; a projection without those limits can easily become a false universal claim.
🌡️ Warming
NIWA projects Aotearoa will be +0.7–1.5°C warmer by 2050 (above the 1995 baseline), and +1.5–3.0°C by 2100 on low emissions — up to +5.5°C if emissions stay high.
🌊 Sea level
NZ seas are projected to rise 0.1–0.3 m by 2050 and 0.3–1.0 m by 2100 — higher if the Antarctic ice sheets destabilise. Low-lying suburbs like South Dunedin and Petone are most exposed.
🌧️ Rainfall shifts
Rainfall change is not one national percentage. Projections vary by region, season, time horizon and emissions scenario. Broad model patterns can show wetter conditions in parts of the west and drier conditions in parts of the east, but the size — and sometimes direction — of change depends on the place and scenario. When you quote a percentage, name those limits with it.
🌀 Extreme events
Warmer oceans give storms more energy — tropical cyclones reach further south, and "1-in-100-year" floods are becoming far more frequent.
Mahi Takirua · Work With the Data
- Rank (5 min): order the four projections by how much they threaten your rohe. Be ready to justify your top one.
- Translate (4 min): pick one figure or bounded pattern and rewrite it so a Year-5 student would understand it — keep the period, scenario and place limits that make the claim true.
- Check your Do Now (3 min): does the data back up the prediction you made at the start of the lesson? Adjust it, and say what changed your mind.
Ngā Puna · Sources (verified)
NIWA / Ministry for the Environment regional climate-change projections for Aotearoa New Zealand · NZ SeaRise (Takiwā) coastal sea-level projections · Ministry for the Environment climate reporting. For rainfall, use the region, season, horizon and emissions scenario stated in the projection rather than treating a national shorthand as the source.