Climate science • Data literacy • Aotearoa New Zealand

Aotearoa Climate Data Visualisations

Read projected climate change as scenario-dependent evidence, not a prediction. These visualisations use the Ministry for the Environment’s 2024 national projections, developed from NIWA downscaling of global climate models.

Source and interpretation contract

Primary source: Ministry for the Environment, Aotearoa New Zealand climate projections (released 18 September 2024). NIWA selected and downscaled six global models to a 5 km grid. Future results are modelled under Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios.

Do not write: “New Zealand will warm by X°C.” Write: “Under SSP…, the projection for… is…” A projection represents a possible future under stated assumptions; it is not a weather forecast or certain prediction.

Visual 1 — projected national annual-average warming by 2090

Change relative to the 1995–2014 baseline, for the 2081–2099 period (labelled “2090” by MfE).

SSP1-2.6

+0.8°C

SSP2-4.5

+1.9°C

SSP3-7.0

+3.0°C

SSP5-8.5

+3.7°C

Notice: The scenarios are not four rival measurements of the same future. They represent different global pathways. What changes in a decision if the range of plausible futures is wide?

Visual 2 — range across all SSPs grows with time

MfE reports the projected national annual-average warming range across all SSP scenarios for each future period:

2030
2021–2040+0.3 to +1.2°Cacross SSPs

2050
2041–2060+0.6 to +2.2°Cacross SSPs

2090
2081–2099+0.7 to +5.6°Cacross SSPs

Interpret: Why does the spread between low- and high-emissions futures matter more later in the century? What does that imply about choices made before 2050?

Visual 3 — scenario comparison table

Scenario	Projected national annual-average warming by 2090	Sentence stem
SSP1-2.6	+0.8°C	Under SSP1-2.6, MfE projects…
SSP2-4.5	+1.9°C	Under SSP2-4.5, MfE projects…
SSP3-7.0	+3.0°C	Under SSP3-7.0, MfE projects…
SSP5-8.5	+3.7°C	Under SSP5-8.5, MfE projects…

The historical national annual-average temperature reported by MfE for 1995–2014 is 10.7°C. The values above are changes from the baseline, not future temperature readings to add blindly to every location: regional climate differs and MfE’s 5 km map should be used for place-specific investigation.

Visual 4 — move from national summary to your rohe

MfE’s official projection map lets you explore temperature, rainfall and wind at 5 km resolution. Choose the historical base period, SSP scenario, future period and—where supported—season.

Open the official MfE Climate Projections Map ↗

Select one place your class can locate confidently.
Choose one variable: temperature, rainfall or wind.
Hold the future period constant and compare at least two SSP scenarios.
Record the units, base period and scenario with every number.
Write one sentence about what the map supports—and one thing it does not prove.

Data-reading questions

Which visual shows scenario uncertainty most clearly? Explain.
Why is “2090” actually an average over 2081–2099 rather than a single-year forecast?
What is lost when a national average is used to describe a particular rohe?
Write one misleading headline someone could create from these numbers. Then repair it.
How could climate projections inform a decision without deciding the decision by themselves?

Ngā puna · Primary sources

Ministry for the Environment — About the climate projections ↗ (methods, 5 km downscaling, variables and model ensemble)
Ministry for the Environment — Climate projections insights ↗ (national scenario and time-period values used above)
Ministry for the Environment — Climate projections map ↗ (place-specific exploration)

Source date: the projection pages used here were released/last updated 18 September 2024. If MfE publishes a newer projection generation, update this handout from the newer source rather than carrying these values forward by habit.